Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/1/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will host the Detroit Tigers on April 1, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at T-Mobile Park. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Mariners holding a 2-3 record and the Tigers at 1-3. In their last encounter, the Tigers managed to secure a victory, but both teams are in search of momentum as they face off for the second time in the series.

On the mound, Seattle will send out Logan Gilbert, who is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow an average of 1.4 earned runs, showcasing an elite projection for earned runs. Gilbert has begun the season impressively with a 1.29 ERA, although his 2.26 xERA indicates he might have been a bit fortunate so far. The right-hander ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, which is a solid position among his peers.

In contrast, Detroit will counter with Casey Mize, who has had a rough start to the season and projects to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs. Mize's performance has not been encouraging, as he ranks poorly among pitchers, and he is expected to struggle against a Mariners lineup that, while not stellar, has some potential.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 22nd in MLB, while the Tigers are even lower at 25th. Despite the Mariners' struggles, they have shown some power, ranking 13th in home runs this season. The projections suggest that the Mariners have an average implied team total of 3.87 runs, while the Tigers sit at a very low 3.13 runs.

With the Mariners as a betting favorite at -160, this matchup may favor them, especially considering Gilbert's strong projections against a struggling Tigers offense. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating a potential pitcher's duel, but the Mariners will look to capitalize on their home field advantage and improve their standing early in the season.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Considering the 0.51 gap between Casey Mize's 4.49 ERA and his 3.98 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in MLB since the start of last season and ought to see positive regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) suggests that Zach McKinstry has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .270 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Colt Keith has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Over his last 3 outings, Logan Gilbert has produced a big rise in his fastball velocity: from 96 mph over the entire season to 97.5 mph of late.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Luke Raley is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 87 games (+22.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+3.05 Units / 76% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

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