Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 7/4/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As we approach the American League Central showdown on July 4, 2024, the Minnesota Twins (48-38) are set to host the Detroit Tigers (39-47) at Target Field. Minnesota is having a solid season, while Detroit is struggling to find consistency. This game will be the third in their series, providing an opportunity for the Twins to extend their dominance.

The Twins will send Bailey Ober to the mound. Ober has been reliable, holding a 7-4 record with a 4.30 ERA over 16 starts. While his ERA suggests he's been average, his 3.61 SIERA indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform better going forward. Ober's peripherals—like his low 6.5% walk rate—give him an edge, especially against a Tigers offense that ranks 27th in MLB and is among the worst in drawing walks.

Kenta Maeda will start for the Tigers, carrying a 2-4 record with a 5.76 ERA through 13 starts. Despite his high ERA, his 4.69 xFIP suggests some bad luck has plagued him this season. However, he faces a potent Twins lineup that ranks 5th in home runs and could capitalize on Maeda's flyball tendencies.

Minnesota's lineup is spearheaded by Byron Buxton, who has been on fire over the last week. In his last five games, Buxton boasts a .389 batting average with an impressive 1.365 OPS, notching 7 hits, 6 runs, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs. The Twins' offense ranks 9th overall and 5th in home runs, making them a challenging matchup for Maeda.

Conversely, Detroit's offense has struggled mightily, ranking 27th in MLB. Justyn-Henry Malloy has been a bright spot recently, hitting .353 with a 1.095 OPS over the last seven days, but the Tigers' overall lack of power and run production remains a significant issue.

The Twins also have a considerable bullpen advantage, ranking 4th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, compared to the Tigers' 13th. This could be crucial in the later innings, especially given the tightness of recent games between these two teams.

With an implied win probability of 63%, the Twins are strong favorites, and for good reason. Their combination of a solid starter, a powerful lineup, and a top-tier bullpen should give them the upper hand against a struggling Tigers squad. Expect Minnesota to continue their strong season with a win on Independence Day.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda has recorded 13.7 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 6th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball hitters like Riley Greene tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (61.4% compared to 54.3% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Byron Buxton is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.03 vs Minnesota Twins 4.58

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.