Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/3/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On May 3, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium for the third game of their series. The Angels (12-19) are struggling this season and currently sit well behind the Tigers (21-12), who are enjoying a strong campaign. In their previous matchup, the Tigers bested the Angels, further solidifying their position as a playoff contender.

The Angels will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound, while the Tigers counter with Jack Flaherty. Hendricks has had a tough start to the season, with a 0-3 record and a troubling 6.65 ERA, ranking him as the 260th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections suggest he’ll pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing about 2.8 earned runs and striking out just 4.3 batters, which is below average. Facing a high-strikeout Tigers offense, Hendricks' low strikeout rate (13.3 K%) presents a considerable challenge.

Flaherty, on the other hand, has been solid, posting a 3.34 ERA and ranking as the 58th best pitcher in MLB. His projections indicate he may pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out around 7.3 batters, which aligns well against an Angels lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts. While Flaherty's performance has been effective, he may be due for a decline based on the projections suggesting some luck in his current form.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 7th in MLB and have been powered by a strong contributor who leads the team with 5 home runs over the last week. The Angels, while potent in home runs (5th in MLB), struggle overall, ranking 25th in offensive performance. With a low implied team total of 3.47 runs for the Angels, and Flaherty's solid form, the Tigers appear to be in a favorable position to secure another win.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Zach McKinstry has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen ranks as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this season (85.6 mph) below where it was last year (87.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Zach Neto has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last season's 94.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.13 Units / 28% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+21.80 Units / 218% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.65, Los Angeles Angels 3.91

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels

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