Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ty Madden - Tigers
  • J.T. Ginn - Athletics

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the Detroit Tigers on September 8, 2024, both teams are looking to turn their fortunes around. The Athletics sit at 62-81, struggling through a tough season, while the Tigers are slightly better at 72-71 but still not in contention for a playoff spot. In their previous matchup on September 7, the Athletics lost a close game to the Tigers, falling 2-1.

On the mound, Oakland is projected to start J.T. Ginn, who has had an average season with a 4.30 ERA. However, his 3.50 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Ginn has shown flashes of potential, notably pitching well in his last start on September 3, where he went 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 7 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he also projects to struggle today, averaging just 4.8 innings pitched and allowing 2.5 earned runs.

Detroit counters with Ty Madden, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite his excellent 3.00 ERA, his 6.05 xFIP indicates he has benefited from good fortune. Madden is a low-strikeout pitcher facing an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts but also ranks 4th in home runs, which could lead to a power showdown.

Interestingly, the projections favor the Athletics, estimating they will score an average of 4.56 runs compared to the Tigers’ 4.50. Given that Oakland's bullpen ranks 9th in MLB, they may have an edge in this matchup. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should expect another closely contested game, similar to their last encounter.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kerry Carpenter has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 94.2-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Brent Rooker has been lucky this year, putting up a .401 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .359 — a .042 difference.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 29 away games (+13.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+18.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.44 vs Oakland Athletics 4.56

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