Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Pick For 5/22/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an American League Central matchup scheduled for May 22, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 31-19, are having a great season, while the Tigers, with a 23-25 record, are having a below-average season.

The projected starting pitchers for this game are Cole Ragans for the Royals and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers. Both Ragans and Skubal are left-handed pitchers. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ragans is ranked as the #18 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a great pitcher. On the other hand, Skubal is ranked as the #1 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite performance.

Ragans has started 10 games this year and has a win/loss record of 3-3. His ERA stands at 3.70, which is considered good. However, his 2.58 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward. Skubal, on the other hand, has started 9 games this year and remains undefeated with a 6-0 record. His ERA is an impressive 1.80, but his 2.51 xFIP indicates that he may experience regression in his performance.

Based on the projections, Ragans is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. However, he is also projected to allow an average of 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks, which is less favorable. Skubal, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. However, he is also projected to allow an average of 4.8 hits and 1.4 walks.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the 13th best team in MLB this season. However, their team batting average ranks 19th, while their team home runs rank a low 26th. On the other hand, the Royals excel at stealing bases, ranking 4th in MLB. The Tigers offense, on the other hand, ranks 21st overall, with a low team batting average of 27th and a poor team home run ranking of 27th. Their stolen base ranking is also low, at 28th.

Over the last 7 games, the Royals' best hitter has been Maikel Garcia, recording impressive numbers in hits, runs, RBIs, and home runs. Meanwhile, Colt Keith has been the Tigers' standout hitter, showcasing an exceptional batting average and OPS.

The Game Total for this matchup is currently set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Royals and the Tigers both have an implied win probability of 50% based on the current moneyline, suggesting that this will be a close game. The Royals have a low implied team total of 3.50 runs, as do the Tigers.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among all starters, Tarik Skubal's fastball velocity of 95.9 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Spencer Torkelson is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Placing 7th-highest in MLB since the start of last season, Detroit Tigers bats as a unit have posted a 13.5° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable standard to evaluate power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Recording 92.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Cole Ragans falls in the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This year, there has been a decline in Dairon Blanco's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.38 ft/sec last year to 29.79 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Freddy Fermin has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.23 vs Kansas City Royals 3.77

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