Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves Pick For 6/19/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers gear up for their third game of the series on June 19, 2024, at Truist Park, fans are in for an intriguing matchup. The Braves, sitting at 40-31, are having a solid season, while the Tigers, at 34-39, are struggling to find consistency. Atlanta's recent form has been buoyed by the hot bat of Austin Riley, who has been on a tear over the last week, hitting .360 with a 1.247 OPS, 9 hits, 6 runs, 8 RBIs, and 3 home runs. On the other side, Riley Greene has been a bright spot for Detroit, posting a .370 average and a 1.229 OPS with 10 hits, 5 runs, 9 RBIs, and 3 home runs over the same period.

The pitching duel features Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers. Lopez, a right-hander, boasts an impressive 1.69 ERA but a 3.60 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season. With a 4-2 record in 12 starts, Lopez has been solid but not spectacular, projecting to allow 2.1 earned runs over 5.1 innings today. However, his peripherals indicate some potential regression, especially given his high hits and walks projections.

On the mound for Detroit, Skubal has been elite. Ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Skubal holds an 8-2 record with an excellent 2.20 ERA. Although his 2.82 xFIP suggests some luck, his consistency has been remarkable. He projects to allow 2.1 earned runs over 5.5 innings, with a strong 7.0 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Braves rank 13th in MLB, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. However, their base-stealing is near the bottom of the league. The Tigers, meanwhile, struggle across the board, ranking 24th in offense, 25th in batting average, and 23rd in home runs. Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Braves ranked 5th and the Tigers 14th.

Betting markets imply a close game, with Atlanta's moneyline at -130 and Detroit's at +110. The Braves' implied team total is 3.93 runs, while the Tigers' is 3.57, indicating a low-scoring affair with a game total set at 7.5 runs. Given the Braves' overall stronger season and the Tigers' offensive struggles, Atlanta holds a slight edge, but the elite performance of Skubal could keep things tight.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has recorded 18.4 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jake Rogers has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's high utilization percentage of his fastball (56.3% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Adam Duvall, Ramon Laureano, Jarred Kelenic).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+14.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.97 vs Atlanta Braves 4.05

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