Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 5/2/2025

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Colorado Rockies on May 2, 2025, in a pivotal National League West matchup. The Giants are currently riding high with a 19-13 record, showcasing a strong start to the season, while the Rockies languish at 6-25, struggling significantly. However, the Giants have dropped three games in a row, while the Rockies have won two straight, including the last meeting between these teams on Thursday.

Robbie Ray is projected to take the mound for the Giants, boasting a solid 3-0 record and a commendable 3.73 ERA this season. Despite his below-average ranking as the 138th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, Ray’s strikeout potential is notable, projecting to fan 7.7 batters on average today. However, his high walk rate (14.2 BB%) could pose challenges against a Rockies lineup that ranks as the 6th least patient in MLB.

On the opposing side, Antonio Senzatela, with a 1-4 record and a 5.22 ERA, is projected to struggle against a Giants offense that, while ranking 19th overall, has the potential to capitalize on his weaknesses. Senzatela's low strikeout rate of 9.5 K% could be a significant disadvantage facing a Giants team that ranks 6th in strikeouts. Furthermore, projections indicate he could yield 3.1 earned runs while allowing 6.0 hits, which doesn’t bode well for the Rockies.

Given the current odds, the Giants are favored heavily with a moneyline of -255, suggesting an implied team total of 4.57 runs, in stark contrast to the Rockies’ low total of 2.93 runs. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Giants, particularly with their strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, compared to the Rockies' 8th ranked unit. As the series continues, the Giants will look to maintain their momentum and capitalize on the Rockies' struggles.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering that flyball batters have a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Antonio Senzatela and his 47.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today's matchup matching up with 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Colorado Rockies have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.51, San Francisco Giants 4.8

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.