Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 3/31/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on March 31, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with contrasting seasons. The Phillies stand at a solid 2-1, showcasing their offensive strength with a ranking of 4th best in MLB. In contrast, the Rockies sit at 1-2, struggling with offensive consistency and ranking 18th overall.

The Phillies are projected to start Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher who ranks as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Sanchez has been effective, projecting to allow just 2.0 earned runs over an average of 5.5 innings. However, his tendency to allow 4.8 hits and 1.2 walks per game raises some concerns. On the mound for the Rockies, German Marquez, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rougher start, projected to allow 2.6 earned runs over 4.5 innings of work. His 4.8 hits allowed and 1.6 walks per game indicate potential trouble against a potent Phillies lineup.

The Phillies offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 5th in team batting average and 7th in home runs. They are expected to capitalize on Marquez’s struggles, with an implied team total of 5.13 runs. Conversely, the Rockies' offense has been lackluster, averaging just 3.37 runs, and their 25th rank in stolen bases underscores their struggles to create scoring opportunities.

With the Phillies being a significant betting favorite, this matchup presents a great opportunity for them to leverage their offensive prowess against a Rockies team that is still searching for its footing early in the season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of all starters, German Marquez's fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .324 rate is inflated compared to his .280 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cristopher Sanchez to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Kyle Schwarber's 15.6% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Brandon Marsh has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 131 games (+6.20 Units / 5% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

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