Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/14/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to host the Colorado Rockies on April 14, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Dodgers have been enjoying a strong start to the season with an 11-6 record, positioning them well in the National League West. Conversely, the Rockies have struggled significantly, sitting at 3-12, indicating a tough road ahead.

The Dodgers have lost two games in a row, but their offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB. That strength will be tested against Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled this season, posting a 0-2 record with a 5.14 ERA. Advanced stats suggest he is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, and his projections for today's game project him to pitch poorly, allowing 3.4 earned runs over an average of just 4.9 innings.

On the mound for the Dodgers is Dustin May, who, despite a 0-1 record this year, boasts an impressive 0.82 ERA. The projections suggest that May will likely allow around 2.1 earned runs today. While he’s been a bit lucky so far, his ability to limit runs against a Rockies lineup that ranks 23rd in offensive production should certainly give the Dodgers an advantage. The Rockies offense also struggles with strikeouts, ranking 2nd most in MLB, which plays into May's low strikeout tendencies.

With the betting line heavily favoring the Dodgers at -340, bettors can expect a high implied team total of 5.48 runs, suggesting confidence in their ability to dominate. On the other hand, the Rockies face uphill odds with an implied team total of just 3.02 runs. As the game approaches, it’s clear that the Dodgers’ combination of strong pitching and an effective offense makes them the team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela's 2212-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 22nd percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Farmer's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.3-mph figure last year has decreased to 84.8-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

In today's matchup, Mickey Moniak is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.5% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 47% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.55, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.67

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.