Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 8/1/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 1, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Carson Fulmer - Angels

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner has had some very poor luck with his ERA this year; his 4.99 mark is significantly inflated relative to his 4.22 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Elias Diaz is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 GS, Carson Fulmer has experienced a big fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2259 rpm over the whole season to 2170 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Willie Calhoun is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game as none of the available options for the Colorado Rockies share his handedness.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 46 away games (+4.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.37 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.65

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