Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 5/19/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On May 19, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park. The Giants, with a season record of 22-25, are having a below-average season, while the Rockies, with a record of 15-30, are struggling with a terrible season. As the home team, the Giants will look to capitalize on their advantage.

The Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hicks is ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league.

Hicks has started nine games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 3-1. His ERA stands at an excellent 2.44, indicating his strong performance on the mound. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially see a decline in performance going forward. In comparison, Hudson has started eight games with a disappointing win/loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 6.13. Despite his high ERA, his 5.16 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Giants rank as the 20th best team in MLB, while the Rockies rank 18th. The Giants have a slightly better team batting average, ranking 21st compared to the Rockies' 18th. However, the Rockies have struggled in terms of stolen bases, ranking last in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Giants have the top-ranked bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rockies rank 14th. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Rockies, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 36%. The Giants have a higher implied team total of 4.32 runs compared to the Rockies' 3.18 runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dakota Hudson has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 10% more often this year (49.6%) than he did last season (39.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Brendan Rodgers who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brendan Rodgers has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks's 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Chapman, Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Blake Sabol, Marco Luciano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
• Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 17 games at home (+5.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.1 vs San Francisco Giants 4.36

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.