Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 7/11/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds, sitting at 44-49, will host the Colorado Rockies, who are struggling with a 33-60 record, in the fourth game of their series on July 11, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. After a tough season, both teams are looking to gather some momentum but the Reds are the clear favorites, having a better record and a higher implied win probability of 64%.

Hunter Greene takes the mound for the Reds. Greene, a right-hander, has posted a solid 3.45 ERA over 18 starts this season, although his 4.27 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, considers Greene the #68 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an above-average option. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 8.0 batters—a strength given the Rockies' propensity for strikeouts (3rd most in MLB). Despite his high strikeout rate, Greene is projected to struggle with hits and walks, allowing 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks on average.

On the other side, the Rockies will start left-hander Austin Gomber, who has had a mediocre season with a 4.47 ERA over 17 starts. While his projections from THE BAT X aren't promising—5.0 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.7 walks—he might find some success against a Reds offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts. Despite being low on strikeouts himself, Gomber could exploit this weakness.

The Reds' offense, ranked 20th overall this season, has been especially weak in batting average (#27) but shows some power with a 19th ranking in home runs. Their standout recently has been Spencer Steer, who has had a scorching last week with 4 home runs and a 1.192 OPS. Meanwhile, the Rockies, ranked 18th in offense, have seen Brenton Doyle emerge as their best hitter over the last 7 games, boasting a .474 batting average and 1.636 OPS.

Both teams' bullpens rank poorly—26th for the Reds and 25th for the Rockies—making late-game scenarios unpredictable. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating potential for plenty of scoring. Given the current odds and matchups, the Reds' advantages in starting pitching and recent offensive surge position them favorably to take this game.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber is projected to allow an average of 2.86 earned runs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme flyball hitters like Brendan Rodgers are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene has relied on his slider 7% less often this season (33.5%) than he did last year (40.5%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jeimer Candelario has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games at home (+14.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 60 games (+12.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.32 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.85

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