Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/2/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 2, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of their series. The Blue Jays enter this matchup with a record of 15-16, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Guardians have been performing notably better at 18-13. This contest carries weight as both teams look to gain momentum; the Blue Jays are currently projected to start Chris Bassitt, who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.62, suggesting he is above average despite a less-than-ideal 2-2 record.

Cleveland will counter with Logan Allen, who has had a tough start to the season, holding a 4.21 ERA and a concerning 5.02 xFIP, indicating he may have been fortunate thus far. Allen's low strikeout rate (15.8 K%) against a Blue Jays lineup that strikes out the least in MLB could be a double-edged sword, potentially giving Toronto an opening to capitalize on his weaknesses.

Despite the Blue Jays’ struggles, their bullpen ranks 9th best in MLB, which could play a crucial role if the game remains close. In contrast, the Guardians boast the top-ranked bullpen, providing them with a slight edge in late-game situations. The Guardians' offense, while not stellar at 20th overall, has shown the ability to deliver with 15th in home runs this season, which could pose a challenge for Bassitt if he isn’t careful.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the Blue Jays are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting a projected team total of 4.58 runs. This matchup promises to be pivotal for both teams as they navigate through the early season.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.1% compared to 51.7% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Carlos Santana has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (89.7 mph) has been quite a bit slower than than his seasonal rate (90.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 86.3-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 80.1-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.07 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Angel Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 33% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.74, Toronto Blue Jays 4.95

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

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