Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 3/31/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Cleveland Guardians on March 31, 2025, both teams are off to strong starts this season. The Padres are 4-0 and showcasing a potent offense that ranks 6th in MLB, while the Guardians sit at 2-1 and are in the middle of the pack at 17th. This matchup not only marks the first game of the series but also features two teams with solid bullpen rankings—3rd for the Padres and 4th for the Guardians—hinting at strategic late-game scenarios.

The Padres are projected to start Kyle Hart, a left-handed pitcher who, despite being ranked as the 240th best starter, has shown some promise. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.0 innings while allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs—a respectable figure. However, he struggles with walks and hits allowed, which could pose a challenge against a Guardians lineup that ranks 21st in batting average.

Luis Ortiz, slated to start for the Guardians, is also looking to establish himself. He projects to pitch just under 5.0 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. Both pitchers find themselves in a tough spot against strong offensive lineups, particularly the Padres, who lead with a .300 batting average and are 2nd in that category across MLB.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, it’s expected to be a competitive affair. The Padres' moneyline is currently -135, reflecting confidence in their strong start and the projected strength of their lineup against a struggling Guardians offense. Bettors might find value in considering the Padres’ strong offensive metrics juxtaposed with the Guardians' pitching and batting struggles.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Luis L. Ortiz to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Steven Kwan has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 5.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Jhonkensy Noel, Gabriel Arias).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The Cleveland Guardians have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Hart in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Since the start of last season, Luis Arraez's 1.6% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 101 games (+18.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+14.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+9.30 Units / 155% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Kyle Hart - Padres

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.