Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 4/19/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are struggling this season with an 8-13 record, placing them 4th in the National League Central. In stark contrast, the Cleveland Guardians are performing better, boasting a 10-9 record that puts them 2nd in the American League Central. This interleague matchup on April 19, 2025, at PNC Park comes on the heels of yesterday's game in which the Guardians bested the Pirates.

Paul Skenes, projected to start for the Pirates, is a rising star among pitchers, ranked 1st in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 2.96 ERA demonstrates his effectiveness, especially considering he has an exceptional 2.25 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Skenes has a solid track record this year, with a 2-1 win/loss record in four starts. In contrast, Ben Lively, starting for the Guardians, has struggled, holding a 0-2 record and a less impressive 4.87 ERA. While Lively has also started four games, his performance has landed him among the lower ranks in MLB.

The Pirates' offense has been underwhelming, ranking 28th in MLB, but they do boast a surprisingly high 5th rank in stolen bases, highlighting some speed on the base paths. The Guardians' offense, while average at 19th, ranks 10th in team home runs, showcasing their ability to capitalize on power.

With the Pirates currently favored at -175 on the moneyline, they are expected to score 4.50 runs against a lowly implied team total of 3.50 runs for the Guardians. Given Skenes' elite status and Lively's struggles, the Pirates have a solid chance to turn their fortunes around in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Ramirez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bo Naylor, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has gone to his secondary pitches 23.3% more often this year (55.7%) than he did last season (32.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+9.20 Units / 115% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.8, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.85

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

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