Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Prediction, Odds & Picks – 10/14/2024

• Date: October 14, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Cobb - Guardians
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Game 1 Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on October 14, 2024, both teams are looking to set the tone in this American League Championship Series matchup. The Yankees, who last played on October 10, will have star left-hander Carlos Rodon on the mound. Rodon, ranked 100th among starting pitchers, has been solid this season with a 16-9 record and a respectable 3.96 ERA. Despite his high-strikeout ability, he'll face a tough challenge against a Guardians lineup that ranks 6th in least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing one of his strengths.

On the other side, the Guardians, who last played on October 11, will send right-hander Alex Cobb to the mound. Cobb, ranked 68th among starters, boasts an impressive 2.76 ERA, although his peripheral stats suggest some regression might be on the horizon. Cobb's groundball prowess could be advantageous against a powerful Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs. However, his projection to allow 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks today might pose challenges against the Yankees' patient approach, which leads the league in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Yankees hold a significant edge, ranking 3rd overall with a potent lineup that combines a good team batting average and impressive power. The Guardians, while a respectable 17th, shine in speed, ranking 5th in stolen bases, which could be a factor if they manage to get on base against Rodon.

The Yankees bullpen, ranked 9th, faces the top-ranked Guardians bullpen, adding another layer of intrigue to this matchup. With the Yankees as the betting favorites and an implied win probability of 60%, the Guardians will need to leverage their speed and bullpen strength to upset the odds in this series opener.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Alex Cobb is an extreme groundball pitcher (54.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #5 HR venue in the majors — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Carlos Rodon encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+14.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+15.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.8 vs New York Yankees 4.26

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.