Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians
  • Nick Nastrini - White Sox

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians visit Guaranteed Rate Field on September 9, 2024, for the first game of their series against the Chicago White Sox, the matchup highlights their contrasting seasons. The Guardians, with a strong record of 81-62, are performing well, while the White Sox are struggling mightily at 33-111. With the Guardians sitting comfortably in the middle of the pack, they’ve built momentum coming off a solid performance, bringing an expectation of success today.

On the mound, the Guardians will send Joey Cantillo to face the White Sox's Nick Nastrini. Cantillo is projected to allow an average of 2.3 earned runs today, which is an average output for a pitcher. However, his overall performance has been below average this season, reflected in his 7.71 ERA. Nastrini, meanwhile, has yet to secure a win this year, boasting a 0-7 record and a troubling 7.79 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as indicated by his 6.70 xERA, signaling potential for better outcomes.

The White Sox offense ranks a dismal 30th in MLB, struggling to produce runs consistently. In contrast, the Guardians sit in 17th place. Despite the projections favoring Cleveland, there’s a notable opportunity here: THE BAT X projects the White Sox to score an average of 4.19 runs, a figure that suggests they could overperform. Given the Guardians’ stronger bullpen ranked 6th compared to the White Sox's last-place squad, betting on the Guardians may seem wise, but the value lies in the potential for the beleaguered White Sox to surprise.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 17.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Nick Nastrini is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Corey Julks has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph dropping to 78.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 33 games (+2.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 71 away games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 32% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.3 vs Chicago White Sox 4.19

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