Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet – 7/12/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 12, 2024, at Tropicana Field, the stakes are high for both teams. The Rays, holding a 46-47 record, are striving to stay competitive in the American League, while the Guardians, with a strong 57-35 record, are having a great season and looking to solidify their playoff positioning.

The Rays will turn to right-hander Taj Bradley, who has been a bright spot in their rotation. Bradley, who holds a solid 3.23 ERA over 11 starts this season, has been effective despite some underlying metrics suggesting he’s had a bit of luck. His 4.27 xERA indicates that he might regress slightly, but with a 30.6 K%, he possesses the potential to dominate. However, he faces a challenge against a Guardians offense that ranks 4th in MLB in least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing one of his key strengths.

Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for Cleveland, entering the game with a 5.22 ERA over 16 starts. Despite his struggles, his 4.24 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could see better days ahead. Carrasco will be up against a Rays offense that ranks 23rd in MLB, a below-average ranking. Notably, the Rays' power has been lacking, ranking 27th in home runs, which may give Carrasco some breathing room.

Offensively, the Rays have been powered by Yandy Diaz, who has been red-hot over the last week, batting .348 with a 1.032 OPS. His counterpart, Josh Naylor from the Guardians, has also been impressive, posting a .304 batting average and a .950 OPS over the same span. This matchup will see two in-form hitters trying to spark their respective teams.

The Rays bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, will also play a crucial role in this game, especially considering the Guardians' bullpen ranks 2nd. This positions both teams for a potentially tight contest.

Betting markets give the Rays a slight edge with a moneyline of -135, translating to an implied win probability of 55%. This suggests a close game, but the Rays' above-average bullpen and home-field advantage might just tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Compared to average, Carlos Carrasco has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -9.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

This season, Steven Kwan has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 87.9 mph compared to last year's 85.3 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's change-up usage has increased by 13.8% from last season to this one (13.9% to 27.7%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Cleveland's #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Yandy Diaz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 80 games (+20.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 89 games (+11.92 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.58 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.38

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