Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 5/27/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 27, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Xzavion Curry - Guardians
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On May 27, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will take on the Cleveland Guardians in an Interleague matchup at Coors Field. The Rockies, with a disappointing record of 18-34 this season, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the Guardians, who are having a great season with a record of 36-17.

The Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, who has had a solid season so far. Gomber has started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.76. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may not be able to maintain this level of performance going forward.

Opposing Gomber on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Xzavion Curry, who has started 2 games this year. Curry has an excellent ERA of 1.93 but, similar to Gomber, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Rockies rank 18th in MLB in team batting average and home runs, while the Guardians rank 14th in both categories. However, the Guardians have a significant advantage in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league compared to the Rockies' last-place ranking.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Guardians have the upper hand, ranking 3rd in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Rockies, on the other hand, have the 25th-ranked bullpen.

According to the current odds, the Guardians are favored to win this game with an implied win probability of 55%. However, the Rockies have a high implied team total of 4.95 runs, indicating that they are expected to put up a fight.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Xzavion Curry’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (92.9 mph) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Tyler Freeman's 3.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) is in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Cleveland Guardians offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Recording 17.6 outs per GS this year on average, Austin Gomber falls in the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Elias Diaz's speed has fallen off this year. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.42 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.32 Units / 22% ROI)
• Kris Bryant has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.83 vs Colorado Rockies 5.79

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