Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 4/7/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the Cincinnati Reds on April 7, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions early in the season. The Giants are enjoying a strong start with a record of 8-1, while the Reds are struggling at 3-7. This matchup will feature aces Logan Webb for the Giants and Hunter Greene for the Reds, both right-handed pitchers known for their strikeouts. Webb is projected to pitch 6.5 innings, allowing an elite 2.0 earned runs on average, while Greene is expected to go 5.6 innings with a slightly higher average of 2.2 earned runs.

In their most recent action, the Giants are riding the momentum of their impressive season, while the Reds continue to search for answers after a rocky start. Webb, ranked 11th among MLB starters according to the leading MLB projection system, brings solid form with a 1-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 3.00. Meanwhile, Greene, ranked 22nd, has shown flashes of brilliance with a 0-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.25. However, underlying stats suggest he may be due for some regression.

With the Giants favored at -140, this matchup presents a compelling opportunity as their strong pitching could exploit the Reds' weak offense. Given the low game total of 7.0 runs, bettors might want to consider how the Giants' elite pitching could keep the score down, favoring a potential under play.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Hunter Greene has relied on his secondary offerings 11.1% less often this season (33.7%) than he did last year (44.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Santiago Espinal has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all starters, Logan Webb's fastball spin rate of 2064.1 rpm is in the 12th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wilmer Flores has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 86.4-mph average to last season's 83.5-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 126 games (+7.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 142 games (+16.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 50% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Logan Webb - Giants

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