Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Preview – 4/30/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -185, Padres -1.5 160
• Money Line: Reds 120, Padres -145
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 43%
• San Diego Padres - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 36.24%
• San Diego Padres - 63.76%

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

The game between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds is scheduled to be played on April 30, 2024, at Petco Park. As the home team, the Padres will have the advantage of playing on their own turf. This National League matchup is highly anticipated, with both teams having contrasting performances this season.

The Padres currently hold a record of 14-18, reflecting a difficult season for the team. On the other hand, the Reds boast a record of 16-13, indicating a strong performance thus far.

The Padres are projected to start Yu Darvish, a right-handed pitcher who has started five games this year. Although Darvish holds a win-loss record of 0-1, his ERA of 4.18 is slightly above average. In contrast, the Reds are expected to start Nick Martinez, another right-handed pitcher. Martinez has started three games this season, with a win-loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.48, which is considered poor.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Yu Darvish is regarded as an average starting pitcher, ranking at #100 out of approximately 350 pitchers. However, Nick Martinez is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. It is worth noting that Martinez's 4.52 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky this year and is expected to perform better in the future.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Padres have shown strength this season, ranking as the 10th best offense in MLB. However, their team batting average of #20 is a weak point. Meanwhile, the Reds offense is ranked as the 20th best in MLB, with an average team batting average of #14. Additionally, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking #1 in MLB, while the Padres rank #7.

It is important to consider the performance of the bullpens as well. Based on our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Padres bullpen is ranked #7, while the Reds bullpen is ranked #24. This indicates that the Padres have the advantage in terms of bullpen strength.

Taking all these factors into account, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Padres as the favorites to win today's game with a win probability of 63%. The Reds, on the other hand, are considered underdogs with a win probability of 37%. The current moneyline also favors the Padres, suggesting an implied win probability of 56% compared to the Reds' 44%.

It is worth noting that Yu Darvish, although projected to allow a higher number of hits, is expected to perform well in terms of earned runs and strikeouts. On the other hand, Nick Martinez's control issues may pose a challenge against the patient Padres offense, which ranks #2 in walks in MLB.

The Game Total for today's game is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring matchup. The Padres have an average implied team total of 4.01 runs, while the Reds' implied team total is lower at 3.49 runs.

With the Padres having a higher projected win probability than the implied win probability, there may be value in betting on the Padres in this game. However, it is important to note that these projections are based on statistical analysis and should be used as a guide when making betting decisions.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez has averaged 90.8 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season, placing in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish has gone to his curveball 5.3% more often this season (17%) than he did last year (11.7%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jurickson Profar has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .377.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Projected catcher Luis Campusano profiles as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+11.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 117 games (+16.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Luis Campusano has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 75% ROI)

Reds vs Padres Prediction: Reds 3.83 - Padres 4.87

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