Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Pick – 4/21/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 21, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Cincinnati Reds at LoanDepot Park for the first game of their series. The Marlins enter the matchup with a 9-12 record and are looking to bounce back after a tough start to the season. Meanwhile, the Reds sit slightly better at 11-11, reflecting an average performance thus far. This game shapes up to be intriguing as both teams battle for better positioning in a competitive National League.

Max Meyer is projected to take the mound for Miami, where he holds a 1-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.63 this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he might have been somewhat lucky, as his 3.91 xERA indicates he could face challenges going forward.

Conversely, Nick Lodolo will start for Cincinnati, bringing a solid 2.31 ERA to the game, which ranks him as an average pitcher. However, his 4.15 xFIP hints at potential regression, similar to Meyer. Both pitchers project to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which could lead to a tight contest.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 13th overall in MLB, buoyed by a strong batting average that currently sits 6th in the league. Their biggest concern is power, however, ranking 25th in home runs. Cincinnati’s offense, while ranked 22nd, shows promise with a middle-of-the-pack performance in home runs.

Betting markets reflect the close nature of the game, with the Marlins at +110 and an implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Reds are set at -130 with an average implied total of 4.19 runs. With both teams looking to find their rhythm, this matchup could very well be a battle of pitching finesse and offensive bursts.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo has utilized his change-up 6.4% more often this season (22.9%) than he did last year (16.5%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all SPs, Max Meyer's fastball spin rate of 2406.9 rpm grades out in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.1-mph mark last year has lowered to 80.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• Dane Myers has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 85% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.58, Miami Marlins 4.09

• Date: April 21, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.