Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Pick – 5/10/2025

The Houston Astros will host the Cincinnati Reds on May 10, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. After a tough battle, the Astros secured a narrow victory in the first game, showcasing their resilience. Currently, the Astros sit at 19-18, reflecting a middle-of-the-road season, while the Reds, with a record of 19-21, have been struggling to find consistency.

On the mound, the Astros are slated to start Lance McCullers Jr., who has had a rocky start this season with just one game under his belt, boasting a perfect ERA of 0.00. However, his xFIP of 4.96 suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance for long. His high walk rate of 16.7% could be problematic, especially against the Reds' patient offense, which ranks 6th in the league for drawing walks.

Brady Singer will take the hill for the Reds, sporting a more established profile with a 4-2 record and a solid 3.66 ERA over seven starts. Singer's projected average of 6.4 innings pitched is indicative of his ability to go deep into games, which could be crucial in a matchup where both teams have shown vulnerabilities in their bullpens, with the Astros ranked 19th and the Reds 21st in the league.

At the plate, the Astros rank 20th in overall offense and 25th in home runs, which highlights their struggles to generate power. In contrast, the Reds have been more effective, holding the 12th spot in MLB offensive rankings, which could give them an edge if they can capitalize on any mistakes made by McCullers. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Astros favored at a -140 moneyline, this matchup promises to be an intriguing clash of pitching styles and offensive strategies.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer's slider usage has fallen by 10.6% from last season to this one (45.5% to 34.9%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Typically, hitters like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Lance McCullers Jr..

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Lance McCullers Jr. performed well in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jose Altuve has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.12, Houston Astros 3.62

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • Lance McCullers Jr. - Astros

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