Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 4/26/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds continue to display a competitive edge in the early going of the season, currently sitting at .500 with a record of 13-13. In contrast, the Colorado Rockies are struggling mightily, with a dismal record of 4-21. As these two teams face off on April 26, 2025, at Coors Field, the Reds look to build on their winning momentum after taking the first game in the series yesterday.

Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, ranked 35th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced statistics, is slated to take the mound. Greene has been exceptional this season, boasting a stellar ERA of 2.35 and an impressive strikeout rate of 29.7%. He is projected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, a performance that should challenge a Rockies lineup that ranks 28th in overall offense.

On the other side, Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela, ranked 269th, has had a rough season. With a 4.81 ERA and a concerning xERA of 6.81, he projects to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing around 3.6 earned runs. His struggles are compounded by a Rockies offense that has ranked 29th in batting average and 27th in home runs and runs scored through the start of the season.

Despite the Rockies' recent woes and their projected implied team total of 4.50 runs for this matchup, they will lean on their best hitter, who has been performing well, delivering a .421 batting average over the last week. However, with the Reds' offensive strength ranking 10th in the league and a high team total of 6.00 runs, Cincinnati appears poised to capitalize on Colorado's struggles. The matchup signals a significant advantage for the Reds as they aim to establish their dominance in this series.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jake Fraley is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela's high utilization rate of his fastball (60.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme groundball bats like Mickey Moniak are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Colorado Rockies project for the 4th-most runs of all teams today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 61% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 6.29, Colorado Rockies 5.24

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

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