Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 4/18/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 18, 2025, both teams are looking to shake off their struggles early in the season. The Orioles sit at 8-10, while the Reds are slightly better at 9-10. This Interleague matchup marks the first game in the series, and both squads are hoping to gain momentum as they navigate the long season ahead.

Cade Povich, projected to start for the Orioles, has had a mixed bag in his three starts this year. Although his ERA is a respectable 3.60, his xERA of 5.03 suggests he has been a bit fortunate, indicating that his performance might take a downturn. Povich has yet to earn a win this season, holding an 0-1 record. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.7 walks—a troubling statistic against a Reds lineup that has struggled offensively.

On the other hand, Andrew Abbott starts for the Reds, boasting an impressive 1.80 ERA in his lone start this year. However, his xFIP of 4.23 points to potential regression, and he will need to be cautious against an Orioles offense that ranks 16th in MLB. Abbott's high walk rate of 10.5% could be problematic against an Orioles team known for its patience at the plate.

The Orioles are favored in this matchup with a high implied team total of 4.94 runs, as the betting lines suggest they have a solid chance to capitalize on their home field advantage. With both offenses underperforming, this game could hinge on which pitcher can better navigate the challenges posed by the opposing lineup. It's a pivotal moment for both teams as they seek to turn their seasons around.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Andrew Abbott will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich's 91.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1-mph fall off from last season's 92.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 98.9-mph average to last year's 92.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Andrew Abbott has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.35 Units / 49% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.48, Baltimore Orioles 4.86

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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