Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/8/2025

As the Atlanta Braves host the Cincinnati Reds on May 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack with records of 17-19 and 19-19, respectively. The Braves are struggling this season, sitting below .500, while the Reds are hovering at an average mark. In their last matchup, the Braves fell short, losing a close contest to the Reds, which adds pressure for the home team to bounce back.

On the mound, the Braves will send out Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been rated as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 1-3 record, Schwellenbach boasts a solid 3.92 ERA and a promising 3.16 xFIP, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing about 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 6.3 batters. However, his average of 5.1 hits and 1.2 walks allowed raises concerns.

Opposing him is Nick Lodolo, a left-handed pitcher for the Reds who has a 3-3 record and a commendable 3.27 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch about 5.4 innings, with an average of 3.0 earned runs and 4.6 strikeouts. However, with a higher xFIP of 4.26, it appears Lodolo may have benefited from some good fortune this season.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, while the Reds sit at 13th. The Braves' power numbers are decent, ranking 13th in home runs, but they struggle on the base paths, ranking 23rd in stolen bases. Conversely, the Reds excel in stealing bases, positioned 5th in MLB, which could be a crucial factor in this matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo has tallied 17.7 outs per GS this year, placing in the 90th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This season, Elly De La Cruz has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Cincinnati Reds bats as a group rank near the bottom of the league this year ( worst) when assessing their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (42.7 compared to 35.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 29% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.8, Atlanta Braves 4.91

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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