Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/10/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago White Sox on April 10, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a crucial matchup in the American League Central. With both teams struggling this season—Cleveland sitting at 5-6 and Chicago at 2-9—this game presents an opportunity for either side to gain momentum. The Guardians enter the game as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -225, reflecting a 67% implied win probability.

Cleveland is projected to start Gavin Williams, who ranks as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Although he has an average ERA of 4.50 this season, his projections suggest he can limit earned runs, allowing just 1.9 on average today. However, he has struggled with walks, projected to give up 1.8. Williams faces a White Sox offense that ranks as the 29th best in the league and is among the least productive against right-handed pitchers, providing him a favorable matchup.

On the other side, Chicago will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.12, his 5.53 xFIP suggests he has been lucky, and his performance may decline. Cannon has struggled with strikeouts, averaging only 3.6 today, which could hinder his ability to handle the Guardians' lineup effectively.

Cleveland's offense ranks 19th overall but has a strong home run tally, standing 10th in that category, while the White Sox offense has been woeful, sitting 29th in batting average and runs scored. The Guardians' elite bullpen further enhances their chances, ranked 1st in the league. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup offers intriguing betting opportunities, particularly with the Guardians' favorable odds and projected offensive output of 4.46 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon has put up an 8.9% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, placing in the 17th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Michael A. Taylor's 12% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago White Sox have been the unluckiest offense in the league since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Gavin Williams (34.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 91-mph EV last year has fallen off to 89-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 away games (+11.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 36% ROI)

• Date: April 10, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.