Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox

May 5, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends
  • Props

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 5/5/2024

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 5, 2024
  • Venue: Busch Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
    • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: White Sox 135, Cardinals -160
Runline: White Sox 1.5 -165, Cardinals -1.5 140
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Chicago White Sox - 41% Chicago White Sox - 38.6%
St. Louis Cardinals - 59% St. Louis Cardinals - 61.4%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will be hosting the Chicago White Sox at Busch Stadium in an Interleague matchup. The Cardinals have had a below average season so far with a record of 15-18, while the White Sox have struggled, with a record of 7-26.

The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has shown promise with a 2.76 ERA this season. However, his peripheral indicator suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the White Sox will send left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet to the mound. Despite a high ERA of 5.97, his peripheral indicator suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

This game marks the third game in the series between these two teams. In their last matchup, the White Sox came out on top with a 6-5 victory. However, the Cardinals were considered the heavy favorites to win with a closing Moneyline price of -170 and an implied win probability of 62%. The White Sox, as underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +155 with an implied win probability of 38%.

The Cardinals offense has been ranked as the 27th best in MLB this season, but they have shown power, ranking 5th in team home runs. The White Sox offense, on the other hand, has struggled and is ranked as the worst in the league.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals are projected to have a 61% chance of winning, while the White Sox have a 39% chance. The Cardinals are currently the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of winning, while the White Sox are underdogs with a moneyline of +135, implying a 41% chance of winning.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Garrett Crochet will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Paul DeJong has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Matthew Liberatore is a pitch-to-contact type (8th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

  • If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Masyn Winn's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.13 ft/sec last year to 28.59 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+3.80 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 127 games (+15.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.37

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our best bets every week!

*By clicking the "Subscribe" button, you agree to receive promotional emails.

Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+136
10% CHW
-162
90% STL

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-110
23% UN
7.5/-110
77% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-162
4% CHW
-1.5/+136
96% STL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHW
Team Stats
STL
4.60
ERA
4.59
.242
Batting Avg Against
.268
1.38
WHIP
1.43
.295
BABIP
.322
10.2%
BB%
8.3%
24.3%
K%
20.4%
72.5%
LOB%
69.8%
.238
Batting Avg
.259
.386
SLG
.436
.681
OPS
.770
.295
OBP
.333
CHW
Team Records
STL
23-58
Home
44-37
18-63
Road
39-42
30-92
vRHP
59-59
11-29
vLHP
24-20
23-90
vs>.500
44-48
18-31
vs<.500
39-31
5-5
Last10
6-4
9-11
Last20
11-9
10-20
Last30
18-12
G. Crochet
M. Liberatore
10.0
Innings
45.2
0
GS
10
0-1
W-L
2-4
3.60
ERA
5.72
8.10
K/9
5.91
9.90
BB/9
3.55
0.90
HR/9
0.79
82.5%
LOB%
58.5%
7.1%
HR/FB%
7.3%
6.37
FIP
4.61
7.36
xFIP
5.44
.250
AVG
.276
17.3%
K%
14.4%
21.2%
BB%
8.7%
6.69
SIERA
5.37

G. Crochet

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

M. Liberatore

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHW STL
CHW STL
Consensus
+134
-160
+136
-162
+136
-162
+140
-166
+152
-180
+136
-162
+135
-157
+135
-159
+135
-160
+140
-165
+150
-180
+130
-160
+135
-160
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
CHW STL
CHW STL
Consensus
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-111)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-109)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)