Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees Best Bet – 5/18/2024

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brad Keller - White Sox
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are set to face off against the Chicago White Sox on May 18, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. As the home team, the Yankees hold the advantage in this American League matchup.

The Yankees have been having a fantastic season, boasting a record of 31-15. Their success can be attributed to their strong offense, which ranks as the 3rd best in MLB. Despite their high ranking in overall offensive performance, the Yankees have struggled with their batting average, ranking 29th in the league. However, their power hitting has been a key factor, as they rank 8th in team home runs.

On the other hand, the White Sox have had a challenging season, with a record of 14-31. Their offense has struggled, ranking as the worst in MLB. They have also faced difficulties in terms of batting average and home runs, ranking 22nd in both categories. Additionally, their bullpen is ranked 27th in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of pitching, the Yankees are projected to start Luis Gil, a right-handed pitcher. Gil has had an impressive season, with a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 2.51. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may experience a decline in performance going forward.

Meanwhile, the White Sox are projected to start Brad Keller, another right-handed pitcher. Keller has struggled this season, with a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 2.84. Similar to Gil, his xFIP indicates potential regression in his performance.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the heavy favorites with a moneyline of -280 and an implied win probability of 71%. The White Sox, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +235 and an implied win probability of 29%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Eloy Jimenez's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.52 ft/sec last year to 25.59 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Luis Gil will record an average of 16.9 outs in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Typically, bats like Juan Soto who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brad Keller.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Trevino, the Yankees's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.19 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.27 vs New York Yankees 5.11

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