Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction For 5/31/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Chicago White Sox in an exciting interleague matchup on May 31, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a season record of 33-23, are having a great season, while the White Sox, with a record of 15-42, are struggling with a terrible season.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers, who has a win/loss record of 1-2 this year and an average ERA of 4.43. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Myers is ranked as the #269 best starting pitcher in MLB. On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, who has a solid win/loss record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.80 this season. However, Fedde's 3.79 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

In terms of offense, the Brewers rank as the #4 best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average is ranked #27, which is considered a very bad ranking. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense ranks as the worst in MLB, sitting at #30 in terms of overall performance.

Looking at the bullpen, the Brewers have the #8 best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the White Sox bullpen ranks at #24. This suggests that the Brewers have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Over the last week, the Brewers' best hitter has been Willy Adames, who has recorded 11 hits, 6 runs, 9 RBIs, and 2 home runs with an impressive batting average of .423 and an OPS of 1.308. Meanwhile, the White Sox's best hitter over the last 7 games has been Nicky Lopez, who has recorded 6 hits with a batting average of .353 and an OPS of .979.

With a game total of 8.0 runs, the Brewers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The White Sox, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +140, with an implied win probability of 40%.

It will be an intriguing matchup between the Brewers and the White Sox. The Brewers' strong offense and bullpen, combined with Tobias Myers' solid projections, give them an advantage. However, Erick Fedde's impressive performance and the potential for the White Sox to bounce back cannot be overlooked. It promises to be an exciting game for both fans and sports bettors alike.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Erick Fedde's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (67.9% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Over his last 3 GS, Tobias Myers has produced a big spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2187 rpm over the entire season to 2267 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Sal Frelick is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Milwaukee Brewers today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 27 games (+2.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.05 Units / 36% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.73 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.35

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