Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/11/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On May 11, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park. The Pirates will be the home team, while the Cubs will be the away team. This National League Central matchup promises an exciting game for baseball fans.

The Pirates have had a tough season so far, with a record of 17-22. Their offense has struggled, ranking as the 27th best in MLB. They have had difficulty hitting for average, ranking 26th in team batting average. However, their stolen base ranking is average, sitting at 12th in MLB. The Pirates will need to find a way to overcome their offensive struggles if they want to compete against the Cubs.

The Cubs, on the other hand, have been having a great season with a record of 23-16. Their offense has been solid, ranking 13th in MLB. They have been hitting for average, ranking 9th in team batting average. Additionally, their stolen base ranking is impressive, sitting at 6th in MLB. The Cubs will look to continue their strong offensive performance against the struggling Pirates.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Paul Skenes for the Pirates and Justin Steele for the Cubs. Skenes is a right-handed pitcher and is projected to pitch around 4.7 innings. He has been ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, Steele is a left-handed pitcher who has started two games this year. He has been impressive with an ERA of 0.96, but his xFIP suggests that he may regress in future performances.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 7.0 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game. The Pirates have a slight edge as the home team, with a moneyline set at -110 and an implied win probability of 50%. The Cubs have the same moneyline and implied win probability. The oddsmakers expect a close game between these two teams.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 91.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 18th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nico Hoerner's speed has dropped off this year. His 28.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.92 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today, Christopher Morel is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.9% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes has averaged 66.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 1st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Bryan Reynolds has had some very poor luck this year. His .321 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .427.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales, Michael A. Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 63 games (+15.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 79% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.87 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.62

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