Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/29/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Cubs enter the contest riding high on their strong season, boasting a 17-12 record and ranking 2nd in MLB in offensive production. Meanwhile, the Pirates are struggling at 11-18, standing 24th in overall offense, and looking to turn things around against their divisional rivals.

In their recent games, the Pirates have not had much luck, and their previous outing was particularly underwhelming. The Cubs, however, come into this matchup with confidence, especially with a projected starting pitcher in Shota Imanaga, who has been above average, ranking 86th among 350 pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. Imanaga's 3.18 ERA and solid control might give him the edge against the Pirates, who rank 6th in MLB for strikeouts, suggesting they may struggle against his low-strikeout style.

Pittsburgh's Andrew Heaney, while ranked 185th, has demonstrated flashes of brilliance with a stellar ERA of 1.72 this season. However, with a projected average performance of allowing 2.9 earned runs, he may find himself under pressure against a potent Cubs lineup that features hitters with high OPS numbers, including their best hitter's impressive 1.263 OPS and .421 batting average over the last week.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which reflects the expectations of both teams’ offensive capabilities. The Pirates have an implied team total of 3.88 runs, while the Cubs are projected at a stronger 4.62 runs. With the Cubs positioned as favorites and the Pirates looking to upset the odds, fans can expect an engaging contest in this National League Central showdown.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (90.4 mph) below where it was last year (91.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In the last 7 days, Seiya Suzuki's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Chicago Cubs in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .328, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .339 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Oneil Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.4-mph to 104-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.05 Units / 29% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.51, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.39

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

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