Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/1/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on May 1, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Pirates currently sit at 12-19, struggling through a tough season, while the Cubs boast a solid 18-13 record, showcasing their strength in the National League Central. In their last matchup, the Pirates triumphed, adding pressure on Chicago as they look to rebound at PNC Park.

On the mound, the Pirates will send out Paul Skenes, who has emerged as one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranked 1st in Power Rankings. Skenes has a commendable Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.39. However, he has been somewhat unlucky, with a lower FIP of 1.74. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, striking out 6.5 batters, although he may struggle with walks, projecting 1.6 on average today.

In contrast, the Cubs will counter with Colin Rea, who has had a decent start this season but is ranked poorly in Power Rankings, indicating he may not be able to maintain his current form. Rea's ERA stands at 0.96, but with a higher xFIP of 3.08, the projections suggest he could see a decline in performance. He is expected to pitch about 5.2 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, along with 1.3 walks and only 4.4 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 2nd in MLB, showcasing a powerful lineup that includes a strong batting average and home run production. Meanwhile, the Pirates offense struggles significantly, ranking 27th overall and 28th in home runs. This matchup favors the Cubs, although with Skenes on the mound, the Pirates have a fighting chance, making this game a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ian Happ has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.1% compared to 32.4% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ranking in the 100th percentile, the hardest ball Oneil Cruz has connected with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 121.5 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order profiles as the 5th-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 28 games (+2.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.16, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.67

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Cubs
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

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