Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 5/30/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 30, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Chicago Cubs on May 30, 2024, at American Family Field. This National League Central matchup features the Brewers, who are having a great season with a record of 32-23, and the Cubs, who are having an average season with a record of 28-28.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Colin Rea, while the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon. Rea has started 10 games this year, boasting a 4-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.98. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Taillon, on the other hand, has started 7 games with a 3-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.58. However, his 4.53 xFIP indicates that he may experience some regression in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Brewers rank as the 5th best team in MLB, while the Cubs rank 21st. However, it's worth noting that the Brewers have a low team batting average, ranking 27th in the league, while the Cubs have a strong batting average, ranking 9th. The Brewers also excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th, while the Cubs rank 6th in this category.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Brewers rank 12th, while the Cubs rank 9th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Both teams have solid bullpens, which could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Looking at the projected statistics, Rea is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters, and giving up 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks on average. Taillon, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and giving up 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks on average. Both pitchers have average projections for this game.

In terms of betting odds, the Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. The Cubs have a moneyline of +100, with an implied win probability of 48%. The close odds suggest that this will be a tightly contested game.

Overall, this matchup between the Brewers and Cubs promises to be an intriguing battle. The Brewers' strong pitching and solid offense will be tested by the Cubs' talented lineup. With both teams having respectable bullpens, the game could come down to a few key plays. Keep an eye on the performances of Rea and Taillon on the mound, as they will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last season (93 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Miguel Amaya's quickness has dropped off this season. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.47 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea has a mean strikeout projection of 4.3 batters in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order today (.312 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .324 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jake Bauers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games at home (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.63 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.5

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