Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 7/9/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs are set to clash in an intriguing Interleague matchup on July 9, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are having a stellar season with a 57-33 record, while the Cubs have struggled with a 42-49 record. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams.

Baltimore, the current favorite with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 59%, will send right-hander Dean Kremer to the mound. Kremer, who sports a 4-4 record and a solid 3.93 ERA this season, has been lucky according to his 5.27 xERA, suggesting a potential regression. Despite Kremer's ranking as the 159th best starting pitcher in MLB, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates he is likely to perform worse going forward.

The Orioles boast a powerful offense, ranking 1st in team home runs and 2nd overall in MLB. Their lineup is a major threat to Jameson Taillon, who will start for the Cubs. Taillon, who has posted a 5-4 record and an excellent 2.99 ERA this year, may see his luck run out as his 4.24 xFIP suggests regression. Taillon's high-flyball tendency (40% FB rate) could spell trouble against Baltimore’s potent lineup.

On the other side, the Cubs' offense has struggled, ranking 22nd overall and 26th in team batting average. Ian Happ has been a bright spot for Chicago, hitting .400 with a 1.278 OPS over the last week, but he will need more support from his teammates against Baltimore's solid bullpen, ranked 11th in the Power Rankings.

With the Orioles' high-powered offense and the Cubs' below-average season, Baltimore has a strong chance to secure a win. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has tallied 17.4 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

When it comes to his batting average, Miguel Amaya has experienced some negative variance this year. His .194 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (53.4% compared to 48.3% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.66 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.44

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