Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Pick – 3/29/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on March 29, 2025, both teams find themselves with identical records of 1-1, indicating an average start to the season. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the third game of the series, and both teams are eager to establish an early-season advantage.

In their last outing, the Rangers managed to secure a victory against the Red Sox, showcasing their potential to compete in a tightly contested matchup. Tyler Mahle is projected to take the mound for Texas, and despite being ranked as the 131st best starting pitcher in MLB, he has the opportunity to turn things around after a shaky start. The projections indicate that Mahle is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs. However, his projected 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks allowed raise concerns about his effectiveness.

On the other side, Walker Buehler, projected to start for the Red Sox, has faced his own struggles, being ranked among the worst pitchers in the league. His projections suggest he will pitch around 4.7 innings, giving up 2.6 earned runs, while also allowing 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks. Both pitchers are battling to find their rhythm early in the season, making this matchup critical for their respective teams.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs, oddsmakers have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a close contest. Each team has an implied team total of 4.50 runs, suggesting that offensive production will be essential. Given the current projections, the Rangers may have a slight edge in this matchup, making them a team to watch as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Globe Life Field.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walker Buehler to throw 81 pitches in today's game (13th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Alex Bregman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Texas Rangers projected offense profiles as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games at home (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 54 away games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

Betting Odds

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