Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 4/13/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a matchup on April 13, 2025, the Chicago White Sox host the Boston Red Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field, with both teams struggling early in the season. The White Sox sit at 4-10, while the Red Sox are slightly better at 7-9. After a tight contest yesterday, the White Sox edged the Red Sox 3-2, hoping to carry that momentum into today's game.

Starting for Chicago is Shane Smith, who has shown flashes of brilliance, posting an impressive ERA of 1.54 in his two starts this season. However, his xFIP of 3.85 suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and his high walk rate (11.4 BB%) could be a concern against a patient Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in MLB for walks drawn. Smith's projected 5.1 innings pitched today indicate he’s expected to go deep into the game, but he may allow 2.4 earned runs, which could be problematic given the White Sox's offensive struggles.

On the other side, Garrett Crochet is projected to start for Boston, boasting an elite ranking as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ERA of 1.45 underscores his strong start, although his xFIP of 3.99 indicates he too could face regression. Crochet's ability to strike out 7.2 batters per game positions him well against a White Sox offense that ranks 27th in MLB this season.

Despite the White Sox's recent victory, they remain significant underdogs with a low implied team total of 2.80 runs for today. Meanwhile, the projections suggest that the Red Sox could score closer to their average of 4.20 runs, making them the favorites in this matchup. With both teams struggling overall but the Red Sox possessing the edge in pitching and offensive potential, this game shapes up to be a crucial one for Boston as they look to rebound from yesterday's loss.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet's cutter utilization has increased by 6.2% from last season to this one (28.5% to 34.7%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.232) provides evidence that Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .264 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his last start, Shane Smith was rolling and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Matt Thaiss has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Thaiss, Luis Robert Jr., Michael A. Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+10.70 Units / 178% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.69, Chicago White Sox 3.43

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Shane Smith - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.