Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 5/9/2025

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on May 9, 2025, both teams are grappling with disappointing seasons. The Angels sit at 15-21, while the Orioles are slightly worse at 13-23. Neither team is currently in contention, and both are looking to turn things around.

On the mound, the Angels will send Kyle Hendricks to the hill. Despite a shaky season, where his Win/Loss record stands at 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA, Hendricks has the advantage of facing a Baltimore lineup that ranks 3rd in the least walks drawn in MLB. This might play into Hendricks's high-walk tendencies (9.7 BB%) as the Orioles may struggle to capitalize on his control issues. Conversely, Tomoyuki Sugano, projected to start for the Orioles, has been more effective this season with a 3.00 ERA and a 3-2 record. However, his 4.45 xFIP suggests that he could be due for a regression.

Offensively, the Angels rank 26th in MLB in batting average but are 5th in home runs, indicating that while they struggle to get on base consistently, they can hit for power when they connect. The Orioles, on the other hand, sit at 22nd overall in offensive performance and rank 26th in batting average, which highlights their struggles as well.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs, the projections favor a high-scoring affair, particularly with the Angels having an implied team total of 4.33 runs. Given the current state of both pitching staffs and their offensive capabilities, fans can expect an intriguing matchup as both teams search for a much-needed win.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Tomoyuki Sugano will have a disadvantage being matched up with 6 batters in the projected offense of the same handedness in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 19th-best batter in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks's 85.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.9-mph decrease from last season's 87.5-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Nolan Schanuel is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyren Paris, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 13 away games (+11.25 Units / 78% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.35 Units / 71% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.29, Los Angeles Angels 5.37

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.