Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/9/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Baltimore Orioles in an Interleague matchup on April 9, 2025. Arizona comes into this game with a 6-6 record this season, while the Orioles come in at 5-7. Despite their struggles, the Diamondbacks' offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, which highlights their potential for improvement. In contrast, the Orioles come in at 10th in offensive rankings, suggesting a tightly matched offensive showdown.

In their last meeting, the Diamondbacks secured a victory, showing they can capitalize on their offensive strengths. Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt, projected to start, has had a rocky season with a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.25. However, his 3.62 xFIP indicates he could be due for a breakout performance. He averages 5.4 innings pitched with the potential to allow 2.9 earned runs, positioning him as a slightly favorable option against Baltimore's struggling lineup.

Dealing with a low-strikeout reputation, Dean Kremer will take the mound for the Orioles. His ERA is a troubling 6.52, although his 4.63 xFIP suggests he too has faced some bad luck. While Kremer is typically effective at limiting walks (4.4 BB%), he may find it challenging against the Diamondbacks' patient hitters, who rank 2nd in MLB in walks drawn.

The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, and the betting markets view this matchup as close, with Arizona's moneyline at -120 and Baltimore’s at +100. With the Diamondbacks currently holding an implied team total of 4.61 runs, they might have the edge if Pfaadt can leverage his offensive support for a strong outing.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler O'Neill's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 97.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 94.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Baltimore Orioles bats as a group rank among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (3rd-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has relied on his secondary offerings 13% more often this season (57.4%) than he did last season (44.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Dean Kremer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pavin Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 101 games (+29.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 124 games (+15.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+1.95 Units / 8% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

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