Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 8/1/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 1, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Trevor Rogers has tallied 15 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cedric Mullins II may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (61.1 vs. 54.4% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Andres Gimenez is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 95 games (+10.37 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 103 games (+14.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.58 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.18

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