Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/9/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on May 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Pirates currently sit at the bottom of the National League standings with a dismal 12-26 record, marking a rough start to the season. Meanwhile, the Braves are hovering around .500 at 18-19, suggesting they are fighting to stay competitive in the race for a playoff spot.

In their most recent outing, the Braves displayed their offensive prowess, managing to secure a solid victory, which could provide momentum heading into this matchup. The Pirates, on the other hand, continue to struggle, and their offensive stats reflect this, as they rank 28th in MLB in both team batting average and home runs. The situation does not get much better on the mound, with Bailey Falter projected to start for Pittsburgh. Falter has been underwhelming this season, with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 5.06, placing him as the 227th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats.

The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, who, while not particularly impressive himself, has been slightly more effective with a 2-1 record and a comparable ERA of 5.06. Elder's ability to generate ground balls (53% GB rate) could work to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that has struggled to showcase power.

With a Game Total set at an average of 8.5 runs, the Braves enter as favorites with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.58 runs. The projections suggest that while the Pirates have a long way to go, the matchup against a groundball pitcher like Elder might provide a glimmer of hope for their struggling offense.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's slider utilization has spiked by 7% from last year to this one (31.5% to 38.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Matt Olson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's 2084-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 4th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Enmanuel Valdez is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.30 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+5.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 19% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.13, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.4

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

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