Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Prediction For 7/13/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves face off at Petco Park on July 13, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between two National League teams. The Padres, currently boasting a 49-48 record and having an average season, will host the Braves, who have a better record at 52-41 and are enjoying a good season. This game is the second in their series, with the Padres looking to build on any momentum from the prior contest.

San Diego will send right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease, ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been solid this season despite some unlucky breaks. His 4.21 ERA is higher than his 3.26 xFIP suggests, indicating he might be due for better results. Cease has a 7-8 Win/Loss record across 19 starts and projects to pitch 5.7 innings today. Expect him to strike out around 8.0 batters, a truly elite number, though his projection of 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks allowed could be areas of concern.

Opposing him is right-hander Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves. Lopez, ranked 82nd in MLB starting pitchers, has been quite fortunate this year. His stellar 1.71 ERA is significantly better than his 3.81 xFIP, hinting at potential regression. With a 7-2 record in 16 starts, Lopez projects to pitch 5.0 innings and strike out 4.4 batters, but he may allow 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks, both of which are troubling numbers.

Offensively, the Padres rank 11th in MLB with the 2nd best team batting average and 9th in home runs, indicating a potent lineup. Meanwhile, the Braves' offense is more middle-of-the-road, ranking 13th overall and 18th in team batting average, though they sit 13th in home runs. Eli White has been a standout for Atlanta recently, hitting .333 with a 1.222 OPS over the last week.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Reynaldo Lopez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 57.1% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) suggests that Adam Duvall has been unlucky this year with his .255 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.2-mph jump from last season's 94.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jurickson Profar has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.5% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 77 games (+26.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.65 Units / 18% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.27 vs San Diego Padres 4.6

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