Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 5/4/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 4, 2025, they find themselves in the midst of a competitive series. The Phillies, currently sitting at 19-14, are enjoying a strong season, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 17-16, are performing above average. The Phillies are projected to start Ranger Suarez, who is ranked as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB, while the Diamondbacks will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound, currently ranked 60th.

In their most recent matchup, the Phillies showcased their offensive might, securing a victory and continuing their positive momentum. However, they will need to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park against a Diamondbacks lineup that boasts the 5th best offense in MLB, despite their own pitching challenges.

Ranger Suarez is expected to pitch a standard outing, averaging 5.9 innings, but with a troubling projection of 5.8 hits allowed per game. This could be an area of concern against a Diamondbacks offense ranked 8th in home runs. On the other hand, Eduardo Rodriguez, although struggling with a 6.06 ERA, has a promising xFIP of 3.39, suggesting he may be due for a turnaround.

The matchup is intriguing, particularly due to Rodriguez's ability to limit walks against a Phillies offense that ranks 5th in walks drawn. This dynamic could tilt the game in favor of the Diamondbacks if Rodriguez can maintain his control. Betting markets reflect this tight contest, setting the Game Total at a high 9.0 runs while giving the Phillies an implied team total of 4.76 runs, compared to 4.24 runs for the Diamondbacks.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez's slider percentage has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (6.6% to 11.8%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's 90.8-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 8th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

As a team, Philadelphia Phillies batters have done well as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 4th-best in Major League Baseball.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 52% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.39, Philadelphia Phillies 4.47

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

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