Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 5/2/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As May approaches and competition heats up, the Philadelphia Phillies (17-14) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-14) are set to clash in their series opener on May 2, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, but they find themselves in the middle of the pack in their respective divisions. The Phillies' offense ranks 10th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense. This matchup promises to be significant, especially with both teams looking to gain an edge in the standings.

In their previous game, the Diamondbacks secured a thrilling victory, which could provide a momentum boost as they face a struggling Phillies bullpen, currently ranked 25th in MLB. The matchup on the mound features left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies, who has been impressive this season with a 3-0 record and an exceptional 1.73 ERA. However, Luzardo's 3.05 xFIP indicates he might not maintain this level of performance. Contrastingly, Merrill Kelly takes the hill for the Diamondbacks. Kelly holds a 3-1 record but carries a 4.41 ERA, and the projections suggest he may face challenges against the potent Phillies offense.

The statistics favor the Phillies, particularly given Luzardo's high strikeout rate of 28.3% against a Diamondbacks lineup that excels at putting the ball in play. This dynamic could tilt the game in favor of Philadelphia, especially with the Diamondbacks' below-average strikeout rate.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs and the Phillies holding a moneyline of -150, bettors might find value in Philadelphia’s potential to capitalize on this advantageous pitching matchup, especially as they look to improve their standing in the National League.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Merrill Kelly will record an average of 3.01 earned runs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo has utilized his slider 6% more often this year (35.2%) than he did last season (29.2%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 5th-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.95, Philadelphia Phillies 4.95

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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