Arizona Diamondbacks VS Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/5/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 5, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tommy Henry - D-Backs
  • Spencer Strider - Braves
• Run Line: D-Backs +1.5 (+114), Braves -1.5 (-135)
• Money Line: D-Backs +235, Braves -290
• Total (Over/Under): 9.0

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 29.85%
• Atlanta Braves - 74.36%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 26.6%
• Atlanta Braves - 73.4%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting National League matchup, the Atlanta Braves are set to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Truist Park on April 5, 2024. The Braves, with a record of 3-2, are having a great season so far, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 4-3, are also off to a good start.

The Braves will be the home team for this game, enjoying the advantage of their home ballpark. They boast a potent offense, currently ranking as the #3 best in MLB this season. Their lineup has been firing on all cylinders, leading the league in team batting average and home runs. Additionally, they have shown some speed on the basepaths, ranking #7 in stolen bases.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Strider. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Strider is considered the #3 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite talent. He is projected to pitch 6.1 innings on average, allowing only 1.9 earned runs while striking out an impressive 8.6 batters. However, he tends to give up a higher number of hits and walks, with averages of 4.2 hits and 1.8 walks per game.

Opposing Strider will be left-handed pitcher Tommy Henry of the Diamondbacks. While the D-Backs have been performing well this season, their offense ranking as the #2 best in MLB, their pitching staff has struggled. In fact, according to our Power Rankings, Henry is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He is projected to pitch 4.8 innings on average, allowing 3.2 earned runs. His strikeout and walk averages are also on the lower side, with 3.6 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per game.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Braves have the #3 best bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank #17. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, as a strong bullpen can help protect a lead or mount a comeback.

With the Braves' strong offense and elite starting pitcher, they have the edge in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. Fans can expect an exciting battle between these two teams as they strive for victory.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tommy Henry is projected to throw 83 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Spencer Strider.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gabriel Moreno, the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Strider projects as the best pitcher in the league right now when it comes to his strikeout talent, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Adam Duvall has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tommy Henry struggles to strike batters out (15th percentile K%) — great news for Duvall.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 90 of their last 156 games (+20.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 101 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.85 Units / 70% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.27 vs Atlanta Braves 5.33

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