Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets Best Bet – 5/30/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 30, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Christian Scott - Mets

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a National League matchup, the New York Mets will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field on May 30, 2024. The Mets, who are having a terrible season with a record of 22-33, will be looking to turn things around as the home team. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks, with a below-average season record of 25-30, will try to improve their performance as the away team.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Christian Scott, who has had an average season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Scott is ranked as the #49 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Despite his record of 0-2, Scott has shown promise with an ERA of 3.97. His 3.30 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Diamondbacks will counter with right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. Gallen is ranked as the #23 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a record of 5-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.12, Gallen has been a key asset for the Diamondbacks. However, his 3.89 xERA indicates that he has been lucky and may not sustain his current level of performance.

Looking at the offensive side, the Mets rank as the #22 best team in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks rank slightly higher at #14. In terms of team batting average, the Mets rank #24, while the Diamondbacks sit at #11. However, the Mets have an average ranking of #11 in team home runs, while the Diamondbacks rank #19. The Diamondbacks excel in team stolen bases, ranking #3, while the Mets sit at #15.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be low-scoring. The Mets are the underdogs with a moneyline of +100, implying a win probability of 48%. The Diamondbacks hold the advantage with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%.

As the Mets look to improve their season, they face a tough challenge against the Diamondbacks. With Gallen's strong performance, the Diamondbacks have the edge in this matchup. However, baseball is known for its unpredictability, and anything can happen on the field. Fans can expect an exciting and closely contested game at Citi Field.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to league average, Zac Gallen has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.6 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake McCarthy's 2.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Christian Scott in the 79th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Omar Narvaez's quickness has fallen off this year. His 24.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.14 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 55% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.01 vs New York Mets 3.42

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