Updated July 31, 2026
The Boston Red Sox travel across the country to open a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Friday, and even with a 12-game gap in the standings, the betting market treats this one as close to a coin flip. That gap between the win totals and the odds board is exactly what makes this series opener worth a second look before first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET. Here, we break it all down and give you our pick in the betting markets.
The headline here is the Dodgers' pitching plan. Los Angeles is turning to Edgardo Henriquez, a reliever-turned-opener working with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP but only 42 strikeouts across a relief role, rather than deploying a traditional starter. Ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is being held back for Saturday, which leaves Los Angeles piecing together innings against a Boston lineup that has been one of the better offenses in the sport over its last 10 games. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, gives Boston exactly the kind of dependable, ground-ball-oriented left arm that can keep the Dodgers' switch-hitters and lefty bats in check for at least the first several innings.
Boston is 57-51 and sitting in wild-card position, and the club has gone 20-8 in games where it hits multiple home runs, a real possibility given the short right-field porch and the current form of Willson Contreras. Los Angeles counters with the game's most dangerous two-way weapon in Shohei Ohtani and a lineup anchored by Freddie Freeman, who is hitting .301 on the season. But a bullpen day for the home club, against a Boston team that has won a lot of close games recently, has us backing the Sox in this one.
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Combined odds on DraftKings Sportsbook: +550
Contreras carries a .549 slugging percentage and 23 home runs into the series, and he is seeing a Dodgers pitching staff without its top late-inning options. Ohtani is one of the game's best power hitters, and is always a threat to go deep in any given game. And the total leans over given a bullpen game against a Red Sox lineup that has scored in bunches lately, plus a Dodgers offense that can erupt against any starter not named Yamamoto or Glasnow.
Category | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
Batting Average | .244 | .261 |
OPS | .709 | .774 |
wOBA | .312 | .338 |
wRC+ | 95 | 113 |
Team ERA | 3.54 | 3.58 |
xFIP | 3.83 | 3.85 |
But Boston's recent stretch of play, including its hot run over the last several weeks, has not fully caught up to these cumulative numbers yet, and that gap between the full-season numbers and the team's current form is a meaningful piece of context for anyone pricing tonight's game.
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