Vanderbilt vs South Carolina Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2025
The Vanderbilt Commodores and South Carolina Gamecocks will meet in Columbia on Saturday. Both teams are 2-0 and have recorded wins over Virginia Tech this season. This is the SEC debut for both of these teams this year and both sides will be looking for a win to avoid falling behind in the conference standings. Here, I take a closer look at this important SEC matchup and give you my Vanderbilt vs South Carolina prediction.
Our Vanderbilt vs South Carolina Prediction
- Pick: South Carolina -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Vanderbilt Commodores vs South Carolina Gamecocks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:45 PM ET
- Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Key Storylines
- South Carolina is ranked 11th in the country going into this game at home. They are looking for their second power conference win of the season with a chance to enter the top 10 should someone ahead of them falter.
- Vanderbilt looks good early on. They beat Virginia Tech convincingly last week and will have a chance to prove themselves with a win here. A victory on the road against South Carolina could move Vandy into the top 25.
- South Carolina’s defense is proving disruptive. The Gamecocks have allowed just 21 points combined in two games. This will be their biggest test so far this season.
Quarterback Play
Vanderbilt relies heavily on quarterback Diego Pavia. His dual-threat ability has been the centerpiece of the offense. Pavia has thrown for 468 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. Mistakes and protection issues have limited his efficiency and Pavia could get even better as the season goes on.
South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers has managed the offense efficiently. He has avoided turnovers and leaned on a balanced run-pass mix. The Gamecocks haven’t forced Sellers to do too much yet and it will be interesting to see what will happen when Sellers is inevitably forced into more clear passing situations against an SEC opponent than they faced in Weeks 1 and 2.
Betting Trends & H2H
- South Carolina is 1-1 against the spread to start the season.
- Vandy has covered the number in two straight games to begin their 2025 campaign.
- Vanderbilt is 1-1 on over/unders early in the year.
- Both games for the Gamecocks have gone under their totals.
- South Carolina is 30-4 all-time against Vanderbilt and has beaten the Commodores 16 times in a row.
Vanderbilt vs South Carolina Model Projection
Score Projection: South Carolina 34 – Vanderbilt 21
Win Probability: South Carolina 83% | Vanderbilt 17%
Final Thoughts
Vanderbilt is better than in recent years with Pavia as their quarterback. But this is a tough test against a South Carolina team that is playing with confidence and balance. I don’t think that Pavia is going to be enough to keep the Commodores in this game. I recommend laying the points with South Carolina as their defense and running game should overwhelm Vandy.
