The USC Trojans will visit the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday in Week 5 of the college football season. USC arrives at 4-0 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play, while Illinois is 3-1 overall but 0-1 in conference play after a brutal 63-10 loss to Indiana. These ranked teams will both look to get an important win in Big Ten competition. Before kickoff from Champaign, continue reading to get my USC vs Illinois prediction.
Our USC vs Illinois Pick
- Pick: Illinois +6.5 over USC
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: USC Trojans vs Illinois Fighting Illini
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
- Broadcast: FOX
USC vs Illinois Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| USC −6.5 | USC −250 / Illinois +210 | 60.5 points |
Key Storylines
- Illinois Reeling After Indiana Loss: The Illini were dominated by Indiana, giving up 579 total yards while gaining only 161. Their offensive line allowed seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss. The Fighting Illini will need to figure out a way to put that loss behind them in a hurry here.
- USC’s Balanced Attack: The Trojans have been clicking offensively. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,223 yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions. His run game is led by Waymond Jordan, who has rushed for over 100 rushing yards per game and will try to make big plays again in this contest.
- Early Kickoff & Travel Factor: USC is not accustomed to a noon Eastern (9:00 a.m. PT) start in Big Ten play. That could affect their preparation, warmups, and even their energy early. Illinois might have a slight edge early if they can exploit any USC sluggishness.
- Home Field & Illinois’ Desperation: It’s Homecoming for Illinois, the crowd will be fired up, and expectations are high for the Illini. After suffering such a blowout loss to Indiana, there’s motivation for them to bounce back on their home turf.
Quarterback Play
- Jayden Maiava: Maiava has completed 68 of 96 pass attempts with nine touchdowns so far this season for USC. He’s yet to throw an interception. But this is Maiava’s first road test of the season against a team that isn’t the lowly Purdue Boilermakers.
- Luke Altmyer: Illinois’ quarterback is 70-of-100 passing with 855 yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions. He has shown arm talent, but he and his team struggled against Indiana and will try to avoid a similar fate here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Illinois is 3-1 against the spread so far this season.
- USC is 2-2 ATS through their first four games.
- Three of USC’s first four games have gone over their totals.
- The Fighting Illini have gone 2-2 in their over/unders in 2025.
USC vs Illinois Model Projection
Score Projection: USC 34 – Illinois 31
Win Probability: USC 70%, Illinois 30%
Final Thoughts
USC should be able to get their first big road win of the season against a ranked opponent this weekend. But I think we are in for a very close game that will be decided at the end of regulation. Lincoln Riley’s teams are always hard to trust on defense in big spots and Illinois should be able to cover the spread as a home dog by doing enough on offense to keep a high-scoring game close.
