The UCF Knights will travel to face the Baylor Bears on Saturday in Big 12 competition. Baylor has one of the most explosive passing offenses in college football and will try to move the ball through the air against a very strong UCF pass defense. Before this clash of styles kicks off in Waco, continue reading for my UCF vs Baylor prediction.
Our UCF vs Baylor Pick
- Pick: UCF +3.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UCF Knights vs Baylor Bears
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Key Storylines
Baylor’s offense is one of the more impressive passing units in the country, averaging over 318 yards through the air per game. Their total offense moves the ball for 458 yards per contest. But UCF has one of the top pass defenses in the Big 12. Baylor’s rushing attack has been below average this season. If UCF can force Baylor to be one‑dimensional on offense, they could find a way to steal this contest on the road.
UCF’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance despite some inconsistency in the middle of their season. They posted a dominant 45‑13 win over West Virginia in their last game. But that game was against a struggling West Virginia team and things could be much tougher against Baylor this weekend.
Quarterback Play
Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson leads the nation in passing with 2,513 yards through the air. He has 23 touchdown passes and seven interceptions to this point in the season. UCF’s starting quarterback is Tayven Jackson. Jackson has 1,183 passing yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He missed some time earlier in the season and is trying to deliver his team to a second win in a row here.
Betting Trends
- UCF is 3-3 against the spread going into this game.
- Baylor is 1-7 against the spread heading into this weekend.
- UCF’s games have stayed under their totals four times in seven outings thus far.
- Baylor has seen five of its first eight games go over their respective totals.
UCF vs Baylor Model Projection
Score Projection: UCF 24 – Baylor 27
Win Probability: UCF 46% / Baylor 54%
Final Thoughts
I am going to take the points with UCF in this matchup with the Baylor Bears. UCF can do enough offensively to keep this game competitive, while the pass defense of the Knights should make life more difficult than usual on Robertson and the aerial attack of the Bears. Expect this game to come down to the wire and for the underdog to cover no matter who ends up winning it straight up.
